Futures are up. There is unbridled optimism about the GDP numbers being released this AM, the first positive growth in over a year (See Bloomberg). However, jobless claims just came in higher than expected.

GDP reported up 3.5% versus estimates of 3.3%. I’m continuing to watch with some concern the net trade balance. Trade subtracted from GDP as imports grew faster than exports, while government spending expanded at a 2.3 percent pace after jumping 6.7 percent in the prior quarter. If our nation is to prosper, we need to revert back to a resemblance of a nation of exporters and curtail our personal consumption.

I suspect we will have a positive rebound day, but I’m not getting too enthusiastic, I think there may be more downside in the week ahead.

The McClellan Oscillator is now below a reading of–100 at a reading of -114.  Are we due for a positive snap back? In the past, -100 has usually been the extreme turning point. But not necessarily a guaranteed thing – back in March, the Oscillator dipped below –100 and we continued a rundown in market for over a week after that.

My bear/bull market candle indicator reads 13/74= 17.6 % (bearish). It is very accurate, except for days where major market news trumps us (like today’s GDP release).

More significantly, my candle pattern index reads 1.30 %, the lowest reading of the year. This compares to a low reading of 3.20% on February 18 and 19, after which the DOW declined as follows:

2/19: -1.2%

2/20: -1.33%

2/23: -3.4%

I don’t put 100% faith in these indicators, but my experience is that they are right much more often than they are wrong.

So here’s how I interpret these readings: it looks like we are going to have a snap back day today, maybe big, so I will not go hiking like I had planned today and will enjoy watching a green screen. It could start big and then end with a whimper.

But the day to hike may be Friday or Monday, when it may be likely that we will have some more downside on market fatigue. As always, this sentiment of mine is subject to revision.

I’ll not take on any new positions longer than a one-day trade, and I’ll hold current portfolio holdings.