Daily Log and Journal for 11/04/09
November 4th, 2009 | Published in MDabbles
Pre-Market:
Good Morning! FOMC day, hump day, etc. etc. The beat goes on!
One glaring indicator, yesterday we printed 555 bullish engulfing patterns to 16 bearish engulfing patterns, suggesting a very bull day today. The breadth indicators also are showing promise.
DOW Futures are up 48 points as of 8:33 AM, and futures and market indices around the world up also.
The NYSE McClellan Oscillator (ratio adjusted) has turned up to –75 from –100; maybe we have turned market momentum up for now.
The $NYAD and $NAAD have both printed daily patterns which show that they have held support, an encouraging sign.
I said yesterday that we would have another 4% or so downturn, not so sure now. It’s still a tug of war between bullas and bears, and a chop chop environment.
7:23 AM just out: New mortgage applications reported up
7:37 AM just out: Challenger report. Layoffs lowest since March 08
8:59 AM ADP jobs report comes out in line with expectations
Early this morning: Better than expected earnings from Comcast
FOMC at 2:15 PM
My Candle Pattern Index (CPI) is still bearish, but less bearish than before at 23.80%. A neutral reading would be around 38% or so. More significant is the fact that the CPI shows 589 patterns awaiting breakout in the NR 7 pattern. This is the highest reading since 10/19/09, the last time we had a neutral reading in the CPI and just before we turned bearish in this indicator. It is significant to note that this is the day that we printed a high of 10, 117 on the DOW, and it was a bearish turn.
If you are not familiar with the NR 7 pattern, it’s a pattern that Bulkowski uses as the most reliable pattern for his CPI. It is a narrow range trading pattern for a 7 day period – think of it sort of like the Bollinger Band. When you have a NR 7 pattern, you have a tightening in the Bolllinger Band, suggesting that you are getting ready to have a chart breakout in one direction or the other.
Today I have no day trading prospects, but I am getting ready to throw some money into international emerging markets ETF’s. Just to be clear, these are IRA type investments, swing to long, and not part of my day trading account. I still think I have another 10 to 20 years left in me, so I have to continue to grow IRA’s.
Good luck today. Stay nimble and quick.
