In place of my usual Weekly Market Spread Report Newsletter the past 3 weeks, I’ve been doing a live interactive broadcast of what I usually cover in the Weekly Market Spread report: perspective of the market both macro and micro, ideas and strategies I’m recommending for my clients, and major markets.  I spend roughly 15-20 [...]

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First it was Business Week. Then President Obama. Now it is Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Speaking before a group of bankers this past weekend in Jackson Hole [...]

Based on the feedback we have been receiving over the past few weeks regarding our weekly newsletter, we are changing the format of the BHBGroupTrader Market Spread Report. First, the capital markets comment will contain four sections, each pertaining to a different complex in the futures asset class: macroeconomic/equity, currency, interest rate, and commodity. Second, please note that in the ideas section, I will include only recommendations applicable to the futures market.

So much for the dog days of summer.  The week of August 10-14 promises to be one of this summer’s more pivotal weeks for the capital markets: equity markets will contemplate the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee Statement on Wednesday for clues regarding the strength of the economic recovery and associated monetary policy; the bond [...]

Whoever said that capital markets do not go up or down in a straight line obviously never experienced 2009. The broad market S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite indices both rose for the third consecutive week, each registering gains of 0.8% and 0.9% respectively in the week of July 27-31. Both indices have now risen 16 out of the last 21 weeks, after having fallen 7 out of the first 9 trading weeks of the year.

Equities Edition
Week of July 20-24, 2009
CAPITAL MARKETS COMMENT
What a week for the equity markets. Global equity indices skyrocketed higher last week, with both the broad market S&P 500 index and the S&P/TSX Composite index gaining more than 6% — the greatest one-week gain in global equity markets since they “bottomed” in early March.
The gains were [...]

What caused the sudden and precipitous drop? The economic data, once again, was horrendous: the unexpected drop in last Tuesday’s Conference Board Consumer Confidence report provided the preamble; Thursday’s non-farm payroll number showing the US economy lost some 130,000 more jobs than expected proved to be more than any green-shoot theorist bulls (or more importantly for purposes of the ensuing discussion, supplemental liquidity-providing proprietary program traders) could handle.

Don’t laugh. While we become ever-more convinced with each passing day that we are currently experiencing a deflationary depression that will take global equity indexes to levels way below their March lows before the end of 2009, we think the stock market can rise. You read it correctly. I am very excited and indeed, quite optimistic about the equity markets. For this week, at least.

lain and simple. Equity markets started the week of June 15-19 on the wrong foot as the European Central Bank confirmed Monday the view I posited in last week’s BHBGroupTrader Market Spread Report, namely that central bankers are not buying the green shoot theories of recovery. In its bi-annual Financial Stability Review, the ECB suggested that euro-zone banks will [...]