The Energy Revolution Needs China’s Resource Investments
For last week’s Energy and Capital, I reviewed China’s buying spree of natural resources, and argued that we may need them for the energy revolution more desperately than anyone now imagines.
If we want an example of good long-term resource planning, we might want to look to China.
While the first [...]

What caused the sudden and precipitous drop? The economic data, once again, was horrendous: the unexpected drop in last Tuesday’s Conference Board Consumer Confidence report provided the preamble; Thursday’s non-farm payroll number showing the US economy lost some 130,000 more jobs than expected proved to be more than any green-shoot theorist bulls (or more importantly for purposes of the ensuing discussion, supplemental liquidity-providing proprietary program traders) could handle.

Don’t laugh. While we become ever-more convinced with each passing day that we are currently experiencing a deflationary depression that will take global equity indexes to levels way below their March lows before the end of 2009, we think the stock market can rise. You read it correctly. I am very excited and indeed, quite optimistic about the equity markets. For this week, at least.

lain and simple. Equity markets started the week of June 15-19 on the wrong foot as the European Central Bank confirmed Monday the view I posited in last week’s BHBGroupTrader Market Spread Report, namely that central bankers are not buying the green shoot theories of recovery. In its bi-annual Financial Stability Review, the ECB suggested that euro-zone banks will [...]

The biggest story from last week, and one which I am monitoring very closely, is the rise of interest rates in the US. The Ten year treasury bond yield which stood at 3.16% a month ago has moved to 3.83% on Friday. The 30 year Treasury bond has moved from 4.06% a month ago to 4.6% on Friday The increase in rates is a major factor for US mortgage rates and for the hopeful turnaround in housing values and sales. US mortgage rates have jumped almost 28% during the past few weeks and this continues be a major factor for new homeowners who will need the incentive of low rates to be able to feel confident in buying a home.

As I write this early Monday morning, GM, the seventy-seven year old blue-chip company – a symbol of great American innovation and industry of the roaring 20s – is in bankruptcy court filing chapter 11. Its shareholders and bondholders are being wiped out. Yet the market is ripping higher. Rather, to understand the recent rally one has to look no further than the US dollar [...]

As we expected would be the case, the tension between bulls and bears reached exhaustive levels during the week of May 18-22 after the broad markets closed a volatile week virtually unchanged. Indexes erupted on Monday after a private survey of homebuilders’ sentiment showed its most positive reading in eight months and [...]

The Market Still Follows the Financials
For my Energy and Capital column this week, I celebrate Earth Day by finding many reasons for optimism in the wave of green initiatives sweeping the nation, but also find a market still staggering under the weight of a broken financial system.
I love Earth Day. I have celebrated it for [...]